Sunday, September 16, 2007

who knows what they'll do

According to the Century Foundation, the trend of an increase in the youth vote will continue in 2008, good news for the Democrats. (58 percent of young people, 18-24, identify as Democrats while 36 percent identify as Republicans).

Mike Connery at MyDD has an excellent new post analyzing the impact of the youth vote in next year's primaries. According to Connery, young voters have the potential to make up 1/4 of the electorate in the early primary states and, because of polling limitations, their impact is a bit of a mystery.

According to a national poll by RT Strategies, Barack Obama is number one on the list for young Democratic voters, with Hillary Clinton not far behind. But the poll, to Connery's chagrin, includes Al Gore as an option, which leaves his 12 percent -- at least at this stage -- up for grabs and potentially benefiting Clinton -- or, my beloved, John Edwards.

But that's a national poll. What do young voters in Iowa and New Hampshire think? Because most young people rely on cell phones and cell phones are not being reached by pollsters, we just don't know. And with same day registration in Iowa and Nevada (January 14) and voters in New Hampshire (January 22) allowed to participate in either primary -- regardless of party affiliation -- we may not know until the morning after . . .

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