Friday, April 21, 2006

now i'm confused

For those of you who share my fascination with prisons, the Post reports on a new study from the Centers for Disease Control that says that most men in prison who are HIV positive came IN that way. The findings dispute the notion -- which I believed -- that the high rates of incarceration for black men has led to the spread of the virus in the African American community.

J Horror? Can you break it down?


Anonymous said...

it's possible that both are true: that most HIV+ inmates arrive with HIV *AND* that prisons accelerate HIV transmission.
though 10 percent sounds low (and it does push back against Prison Break stereotypes), consider it this way:
If 10 prison inmates are HIV+, then 9 entered prison with it. therefore, for every 9 individuals entering prison, one new case will be created (a new infection). that means that in prison, an HIV+ person has an 11 percent chance of creating another case. nationally, the average prisoner does a bid of approx 2.5 years (it it increased from under 2 years while the study was being conducted). therefore (and this is all back of envelope), the HIV transmission rate for entering HIV+ inmates is one new case every 2.5 years. how does that compare with the free-world HIV transmission rate? abf?
my guess is that if you multiply the (number of entering inmates by the percent of HIV+ entering inmates) by the transmission rate above, you'd be upset.
-j horror

Anonymous said...

oops, i meant:
"therefore (and this is all back of the envelope), the HIV transmission rate for each entering HIV+ inmate is ~ 0.11 new cases every 2.5 years"